Monthly Archives: December 2009

Climategate emails taken out of context by the big bad ‘deniers’ – Al Gore

Climate Expert Al Gore weighed in on the Climategate emails saying that they have been taken out of context.

First, Barbara Boxer said that there must be an investigation into how the emails were released to the public ignoring the information that we learned from these emails.

Now, former Vice President Gore is on CNN reiterating about ‘arcane points from emails from long ago.’

“Well, they took a few phrases out of context. These are private e-mails, more than 10 years old, and they’ve tried to blow it up into something that it’s really not.”

Of course, Gore doesn’t mention the email chain dated 12 Oct 2009 from Kevin Trenberth to Michael Mann and others where he professes the following:

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn’t decadal. The PDO is already reversing with the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time since Sept 2007. see [2]http://bit.ly/4HJBSE

The Climategate emails range in date from 07 MAR 1996 through 12 NOV 2009.  About 25 percent of the emails are from 2007 – 2009.  That is hardly archaic. 

The emails are available for everyone to view [click here].  Anyone can see for themselves the dates they were written. 

“If you take one little thing from 10 years ago out of context and describe it inaccurately, then it becomes a controversy without any real substance,” Gore said.

If he is only looking at the emails from 10 years ago, he is looking at the collection out of context.  If you read an email from two months ago that said that it is a travesty when the scientists – who we rely on to provide facts about climate change – cannot account for the lack of warming currently, then it becomes a controversy with tremendous substance. 

Gore defended ‘the scientists’ inability to explain what they described as a temporary slowdown in warming’ as ‘sometimes flippant or ironic and were being distorted to suit climate change denialists.’

And when they talk of ‘tricking’ the data to hide the decline in temperature (yes, that email is 10 years old), the scientists are distorting the data to suit climate change alarmists.

Al Gore has been firmly planted on the side of the pro-Global Warming scientists who repeatedly produce data that supports the existence of man-made Global Warming.  He has gone on record using alarmist phrases like ‘crossing the point of no return,’ and the world is now facing a ‘danger which could bring the end of civilization.’

Now the same scientists that he referenced for years have come under attack and instead of investigating the scientists and the emails went on the offensive and staunchly defended them.

“Is there any substantive reason to worry about them? No. Does the noise machine of the climate deniers blow them out of proportion and fool some people into thinking they have substance? Well, that’s another matter,” he said.

“This was an open process in which the studies that were being argued about actually were fully included and openly discussed and analyzed. So this was an example of people who don’t want to do anything about the climate crisis taking things out of context and misrepresenting them.”

Clearly, Gore is missing the point.  It’s not that the skeptic doesn’t want to do anything about ‘the climate crisis.’  Skeptics (or deniers as the former Vice President likes to call us) want to examine ALL of the data not just the pieces the alarmists like to cherry pick or as their emails suggest ‘trick’.

Gore on the Copenhagen climate convention next week:

“They’re close to getting a final agreement. It will probably be finalized next year after the political agreement that’s expected next week,” he said.

Next year!!!!  That could be too late.  We’ll all be dead by then.

Source:

                Gore says ‘Climategate’ emails taken out of context

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Global Warming – Forget about the science (and the e-mails)

How many times have we heard “all the scientists agree” and “the science is in?” 

“Debating Global Warming is like debating gravity?”

If scientists, economists and astronomers had stopped researching because the initial results were a certainty then we’d still believe:

  • The sun rotates around the earth.
  • The earth is flat.
  • Trickle down economics works
  • Smoking cigarettes with a FILTER is safe.

In fact, research is never complete.  Data is always coming in.  As long as one scientist exists who questions the norm, debate should continue.

There are some who argue that the skeptics of Global Warming are shills who are paid for by the oil companies. 

One could also argue that the scientists who support the theory of Global Warming depend on research grants in order to continue earning a living in their chosen field. 

Then again, as we discovered recently, some scientists attempt to ‘trick’ the data presumably to support a desired conclusion.

The Economist (a believer of the global warming threat) published an article supporting the voice of the skeptic.

A majority of the world’s climate scientists have convinced themselves, and also a lot of laymen, some of whom have political power, that the Earth’s climate is changing; that the change, from humanity’s point of view, is for the worse; and that the cause is human activity, in the form of excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. A minority, though, are sceptical. [sic] Some think that recent, well-grounded data suggesting the Earth’s average temperature is rising are explained by natural variations in solar radiation, and that this trend may be coming to an end. Others argue that longer-term evidence that modern temperatures are higher than they have been for hundreds or thousands of years is actually too flaky to be meaningful.

Such disagreements are commonplace in science. They are eventually settled by the collection of more data and the invention of more refined (or entirely new) theories. Arguments may persist for decades; academics may—and often do—sling insults at each other; but it does not matter a great deal because the stakes are normally rather low.

What is stunning is that the pro-Global Warming side vehemently denies the skeptics the right to weigh in on the debate. 

As we have all heard by now, a new word has entered the vocabulary – Climategate.  This, of course, refers to the approximately one thousand emails that have made its way into the public forum which implies that Global Warming is a hoax.  Though most of the messages are benign, a few embarrassingly appear to indicate that things are not as they appear.

Scientists have claimed that the emails have been taken out of context.  Let’s see them in context.

From: Phil Jones p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

To: ray bradley <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement

Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000

Cc: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,

Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land  N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

That is the full email.  Climate Audit did the analysis on Mike’s Nature Trick and put it into the correct context.  (Due to the high demand for this post, it had been mirrored on Watts Up With That)

Professor Phil Jones has temporarily stepped down from his post as the CRU conducts an investigation into the hacked emails.

Jones had been awarded 50 separate research grants valued at $22.6 million.  The grants were awarded largely for research into the effects of Global Warming.  (And they call the skeptics shills!)

The Telegraph contains more information regarding the research grants [Climategate professor Phil Jones awarded 13 million in research grants]

Professor Ross McKitrick, visiting professor of environmental economics at the University of Buckingham and an arch sceptic who was subject of some of the leaked emails, said: “Climate sceptics are always accused of taking money from industry but it is now clear the money is on the other side.

“There is a huge amount of money on the global warming side. Institutions like the CRU have a very large budget but that would disappear if global warming ceased to exist.

“Scientists are enjoying a funding gravy train; there is so much money in climate research. Lots of areas of science are short of money but not climate change.”

Now the debate begins –  not so much over the content of the email but of how the messages were leaked. 

One would think that this would have been all over the MSM.  It did receive some press, but nothing near what is required of something so potentially harming.

“This is a crime,” Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) said. 

“We may well have a hearing on this, we may not. We may have a briefing for senators, we may not,” Boxer said. “Part of our looking at this will be looking at a criminal activity which could have well been coordinated.”

Of course, Boxer is referring to the criminal activity of . . . hacking the emails – not defrauding scientific data for financial gain (research grants).

“You call it ‘Climategate’; I call it ‘E-mail-theft-gate,'” she said during a committee meeting. “Whatever it is, the main issue is, Are we facing global warming or are we not? I’m looking at these e-mails, that, even though they were stolen, are now out in the public.”

Instead of focusing on how the emails were released (there is time for that later), it is critical that we examine the content of the email and determine whether or not scientists actually cherry-picked the data to support their incorrect hypothesis.

Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that there should be an investigation into whether the Climategate e-mails indicate that the scientists had manipulated data on global warming.

For years, those who disagreed with these scientists were called ‘deniers’, ‘flat-earthers’ and ‘shills’.  What they were doing, in essence, was shutting out dissent – discussion – open debate.  They worked to ensure that the opposing viewpoint and supporting evidence was excluded from the conversation. 

From The Economist:

The danger of dissent

Some would argue that, in matters of great public import, scientific dissent should be silenced. It can, it is true, do harm. When AIDS first reared its ugly head, no one knew what caused it. Gradually, the virus responsible was isolated, identified and then attacked successfully with drugs designed specifically to inhibit its reproduction. A few scientists, though, refused to accept the evidence, and some politicians used their arguments to justify inaction. Since one of those politicians was Thabo Mbeki, then president of South Africa, hundreds of thousands who might have been saved by an anti-AIDS policy grounded in scientific reality died as a result of his policies.

Yet the damage in that case was done by the politicians. A leader who is determined to pursue a wrong-headed course will always find some scientist to support him. A world in which that were not true would be one in which a dangerously narrow consensus had taken hold.

This newspaper (The Economist) believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it. That is the job of the politicians. But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty. There are no certainties in science. Prevailing theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and refined, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again. That is the job of the scientists. When they stop questioning orthodoxy, mankind will have given up the search for truth. The sceptics should not be silenced.

Dissent should not be silenced.

Sources:

Climate change:  A heated debate – Why political orthodoxy must not silence scientific argument – The Economist (26-NOV-2009)

UN body enters climate e-mail row – BBC

Boxer: Hackers should face criminal probe over ‘Climategate’ – The Hill

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